Abu Dhabi, UAE (Photo: Freepik)
Rising Gulf tensions are threatening Kenya’s trade and fuel imports, with oil prices climbing and shipments facing delays. In 2024, Kenya exported goods worth Sh164.65 billion to Gulf markets while importing Sh554.45 billion, bringing the combined trade value to over Sh700 billion.
The Middle East has become one of Kenya’s most important trading corridors, making stability in the region directly relevant to Kenya’s economy.
Global oil benchmark Brent Crude traded at over $80 (Sh10,316) a barrel on Friday as markets continued to react to the conflict in Iran. Reports of retaliatory strikes in the Gulf after the reported killing of Iran’s supreme leader have raised concerns over supply security, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of the world’s oil moves.
Kenya imports all of its fuel from Gulf suppliers, including Saudi Aramco, Emirates National Oil Company, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, under a 180-day credit arrangement. While the deal helps ease immediate pressure on foreign exchange reserves, higher oil prices would push up Kenya’s fuel bill.
The UAE is Kenya’s largest Gulf trading partner, receiving over Sh101 billion worth of exports in 2024. Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Iran also import Kenyan products including tea, coffee, meat, flowers and horticultural goods. Delays in shipping or flights could affect these shipments, particularly perishable goods. Even short delays could reduce earnings for farmers and freight operators.
Kenya’s economic ties to the Gulf also extend beyond trade through labour migration. The region employs hundreds of thousands of Kenyan workers across sectors such as domestic services, hospitality, transport and security, making it one of the country’s most important overseas labour destinations.
According to Central Bank data, remittance inflows from Gulf economies remain significant. Saudi Arabia sent about $302 million (Sh39.06 billion) to Kenya in 2025, while the United Arab Emirates accounted for $125.6 million (Sh16.24 billion) and Qatar contributed $69.7 million (Sh9.02 billion).
Any prolonged instability in the region could therefore affect not only Kenya’s exports and fuel imports but also household incomes supported by diaspora earnings.
Highlighting the scale of the financial impact, Cabinet Secretary for Investments, Trade and Industry Lee Kinyanjui said in a public post on X that prolonged disruptions in Gulf markets could directly affect Kenya’s exports. He noted that while the country hopes for a swift return to normal trade flows, the reality of global geopolitics remains unpredictable.
Kenya’s position as a regional aviation hub adds another layer of economic impact. Sales of jet fuel to international carriers operating through Jomo Kenyatta International Airport generate close to Sh100 billion annually for local oil marketers. In the first quarter of 2024, sales to the UAE alone accounted for Sh27.41 billion.
Flight suspensions and airport closures in Gulf hubs, including those announced by Kenya Airways, could reduce these volumes if disruptions continue.
Shipping insurers have also raised premiums for vessels transiting the Gulf. Higher insurance and freight costs may eventually increase the price of imported goods, including fuel, fertiliser, machinery and other essentials.
The Gulf region remains one of Kenya’s largest sources of energy imports, export markets and diaspora income.
Kenya’s challenge now is how long the disruptions last. Brief delays are unlikely to have a big effect, but long-lasting disruptions could increase fuel costs, lower export earnings and affect overall business income.
With more than Sh700 billion in trade tied to the Gulf, the region’s stability is no longer a distant concern. It is increasingly becoming a significant factor in Kenya’s economic planning.
