The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the flagship duty-free trade programme between the United States and Africa, is set to expire this month after 25 years – raising urgent questions about the continent’s next move in global trade.
AGOA, which since 2000 has granted 32 eligible African nations duty-free access to thousands of products in the US market, has supported industries from apparel in Kenya to textiles in Lesotho. Yet, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO), its expiry may not be as devastating as feared.
“Only six percent of Africa’s exports go to the US despite AGOA, so the utilisation has been too limited for us to say Africa cannot survive without it,” WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said at the Africa Unstoppable Summit in New York. “Africa must now position itself as the market of the future.”
Kenya is among the most exposed economies. More than 75 percent of its exports to the US—worth Sh95.24 billion in 2024—entered duty-free under AGOA. These include clothing, macadamia, coffee, titanium ores, and tea. An estimated 300,000 Kenyan jobs are linked to the pact.
To cushion itself, Nairobi is fast-tracking a reciprocal trade deal with Washington. Trade Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui said in August that a new bilateral pact is “crucial for securing long-term access to the US market” and could unlock new investments. Several American firms have already expressed interest in setting up in Kenya.
The urgency follows the Trump administration’s imposition of new tariffs on African exports—including a 10 percent levy on Kenyan goods since August 1, 2025. Other AGOA beneficiaries such as Lesotho, Madagascar, Botswana, and South Africa have been hit with tariffs ranging from 30 to 50 percent.
The WTO is urging African nations not to dwell solely on AGOA’s expiry but to embrace wider opportunities. A central pillar is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which could create the world’s largest single market of 1.4 billion people. However, logistical hurdles, infrastructure gaps, and bureaucratic bottlenecks still limit its potential.
“If AGOA can be renewed, that will be welcome. But Africa’s priority now should be fixing the barriers holding back the continental free trade area,” Dr Okonjo-Iweala stressed.
Another pathway is the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA), a WTO-led initiative launched in 2024 that seeks to accelerate investment flows, especially into least developed countries. Already, 39 African states have signed on. By streamlining cross-border cooperation and reducing the perception of risk in Africa, the IFDA could help fill the trade gap left by AGOA.
Africa’s trade with the US remains modest compared to China and the European Union, both of which have steadily deepened their economic ties with the continent. Analysts argue that AGOA’s sunset could finally push Africa to shift focus inward boosting regional trade, industrialising through AfCFTA, and attracting diversified investment under IFDA.
In the short term, individual states like Kenya may still negotiate bilateral deals to shield their exporters. But in the long term, the continent’s resilience lies in reducing dependence on external trade pacts and building competitive value chains at home.
As Dr Okonjo-Iweala put it: “Africa must not be seen as a continent of risk, but as a continent of opportunity. This is the time to fix what holds us back and to make the African market work for Africans.
