More than 65,000 Kenyan jobs in the export processing zones (EPZs) hang in the balance after US President Donald Trump’s administration signaled support for a one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the flagship trade pact that expired at midnight on Tuesday.The move, confirmed by a White House official on Friday, offers temporary relief for Kenyan firms exporting apparel, textiles, nuts, and other goods duty-free to the US. Without renewal, these exports would face tariffs as high as 30 percent, threatening competitiveness against countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam.
Agoa has been a cornerstone of Kenya’s manufacturing success. At the Athi River EPZ, companies such as United Aryan which produces Wrangler and Levi’s jeans employ thousands of workers. But uncertainty has already hit operations, with United Aryan cutting 1,000 jobs, or 10 percent of its workforce, last week in anticipation of the lapse.
“The uncertainty is not only with buyers, but with lenders, the banks, and all that. Everybody’s very nervous,” said Pankaj Bedi, chair of the apparel manufacturers and exporters sector at the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM).
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that 40 firms under the Agoa programme employed 66,804 people in 2024 up 15 percent from 2023 while injecting Sh38.27 billion in new capital investments. Export earnings surged 41.9 percent to Sh60.5 billion since 2020.
The Kenyan government has been pushing Washington for an extension. President William Ruto and Cabinet Secretary for Investments, Trade and Industry, Lee Kinyanjui, led lobbying efforts during the UN General Assembly in New York last week, backed by the Kenya Private Sector Alliance (Kepsa) and industry leaders.
“The fears [over jobs] are unwarranted … you have seen the government effort to resolve the matter proactively. The President has made deliberate steps to lobby USA authorities in the extension of Agoa,” said Mr Kinyanjui. “The response [from Washington] is reassuring. Keep cool, professional driver is in control.”
Still, manufacturers remain uneasy. “Everybody we met from the US side is in agreement that, yes, Agoa should continue. But still there’s no champion… They’re all waiting for a sign from the White House,” Mr Bedi said.
Global implications
Agoa, first enacted in 2000 under President Bill Clinton and last renewed in 2015 under Barack Obama, has been credited with supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs in over 30 African countries. In Lesotho, for instance, the pact spurred the rise of Africa’s largest apparel exporter to the US.
But Trump’s protectionist policies, including bilateral tariffs introduced in August, have diluted Agoa’s impact. Without renewal, Kenya’s trade-weighted average US tariff would nearly triple, rising from 10 percent to 28 percent, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Kepsa warns that the expiry of Agoa not only risks Kenyan jobs but also threatens US consumer savings estimated at up to Sh32 billion annually by increasing the cost of everyday goods like jeans and uniforms.
Politics in WashingtonThe path to renewal now lies in the hands of the Republican-controlled Congress, which must approve the extension. Unlike in 2015 when Obama secured a 10-year renewal well before deadline, Trump’s administration has shown little urgency.
A bipartisan proposal to extend Agoa to 2041 failed earlier this year, leaving a short-term renewal as the only viable option. The administration is considering attaching the measure to a stopgap funding bill to keep the US government open.President Ruto has urged Washington to consider a longer extension. “We are asking the US to seriously consider renewing and extending Agoa for at least five years because it is a platform that connects Africa and the US in a very fundamental way,” he said in New York.
For now, Kenyan exporters and their workers can only hope that Washington’s signals translate into swift congressional action before high tariffs derail years of progress in one of the country’s most vital industries.
